Key Highlights of Updated Long Range Forecast Outlook for 2023 SW Monsoon - IMD

Key Highlights of Updated Long Range Forecast Outlook for the 2023 SW Monsoon Season (June-September) Rainfall & Monthly Rainfall and Temperature for June 2023 -

1. Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA)). The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
2. Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%.
3. Region wise, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over Northwest India (<92% of LPA) and normal over other three broad homogeneous regions; central India (94-106% of LPA), North East India (94-106% of LPA) and South Peninsular India (94-106% of LPA).><92% of LPA) and normal over other three broad homogeneous regions; central India (94-106% of LPA), North East India (94-106% of LPA) and South Peninsular India (94-106% of LPA).
4. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be Normal (94-106% of LPA).
5. In respect of spatial distribution of the monsoon seasonal rainfall, normal to above normal rainfall is likely over the most areas of south peninsular India, some areas of east central India and many areas of northeast and extreme north India. However, normal to below normal rainfall is likely over many areas of northwest India and adjoining west central India, northern parts of the peninsular India and along the foothills of Himalayas.
6. In June, below normal monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where above normal rainfall is expected.
7. In June, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for the extreme north and some parts of the southern peninsular India, where below-normal and normal temperatures respectively are likely.
8. During June, normal to above-normal minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except for the extreme north of India and a few areas of northeast India, where below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.
9. The latest global model forecasts indicate high probabilities for the development of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the upcoming monsoon season.

As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, India Meteorological Department (IMD) is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins. IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June.

Source: IMD