ABiov Expects Record-Breaking Soybean Crop and Export Surge for Brazil in 2023

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABiov) has revised upward Brazil's soybean crop and export forecast for 2023. The country, being the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, expects to set record levels. Production is now estimated at 155 million tonnes, surpassing the April forecast by 1.4 million tonnes. Favorable weather conditions and increased planted area will contribute to a 20% growth in national production compared to 2022. Soybean exports from Brazil this year are projected to reach 95.7 million tonnes, an increase of 17 million tonnes compared to the previous year and two million tonnes higher than the previous forecast. This information comes from the association that represents the main trading and processing companies.

The forecast for Brazilian soybean processing in 2023 has been adjusted to 53 million tonnes, an increase of 500,000 tonnes compared to the previous estimate. In 2022, processing was at 50.9 million tonnes due to higher external demand for soybean meal caused by a poor harvest in Argentina.

Soybean meal production is expected to reach 40.6 million tonnes, a significant increase from the earlier forecast of 40.2 million tonnes. Export estimates for soybean meal have also been raised by 400,000 tonnes, reaching 21.4 million tonnes.

ABiov predicts a 21.6% increase in Brazil's soybean export volume this year compared to 2022, taking advantage of the record harvest. Annual shipments of soybean meal are expected to rise by 5.16%. However, soybean oil exports are anticipated to decline by 17.2% compared to 2022.

Despite lower prices for soybeans, grain, flour, and oil due to the record crops in Brazil, the association revised its forecast for export earnings from the soybean complex to a record $65.9 billion, slightly lower than the April estimate of $67.4 billion. This is still a significant increase of $5 billion compared to the previous year, driven by higher quantities of soybeans and meal. The soybean sector remains Brazil's largest exporter.