USDA in its June 22 report has slashed USA’s 2022-23 Soybean production estimate by -2.91% to 122 MMT as compared to 126 MMT previous month. However, Soy production is still up by 2% as compared to previous year. Whereas Brazil’s 2022-23 Soybean production estimate kept unchanged at 149 MMT MoM and 18% up as compared to last year. Argentina’s 2022-23 Soybean production estimates too kept unchanged at 51 MMT as compared to previous month estimates whereas 16% up as compared to previous year. India's 2022-23 Soybean production kept unchanged as compared to previous month estimates while 3% lower production estimates at 11.5 MMT as compared to 11.9 MMT previous year.
Overall, there is 1% of production cut at 391 MMT as compared to 395 MMT previous month estimates. However, there is an 11% increase in total soybean production estimates as compared to previous year.
Overall global supply seems comfortable, however crop condition in USA, crude oil prices and export demand from China likely to set the tone of the market.