According to the USDA, World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimate Report, U.S. cotton production is expected to be higher by 1.5%, at 14.0 million bales, as a decrease in the Southwest is more than offset by increases elsewhere. The 2022-23 World cotton production is expected to be lower by 1.6 million bales, led by a 700,000-bale cut in Pakistan’s crop as gin arrivals there signal the extent of damage from earlier precipitation and flooding. Unusually high precipitation is also driving a 500,000-bale reduction in Australia’s 2022-23 crop, and in part accounts for a 630,000-bale decline in West Africa’s expected output. Global cotton consumption is projected around 650,000 bales lower, with a 300,000-bale cut to mill use in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.
World trade is 400,000 bales lower, with import reductions for Bangladesh and China only partly offset by Pakistan’s increase; West African exporters account for most of the decline in projected exports. At 87.3 million bales, world-ending stocks in 2022-23 are projected 600,000 bales lower than in October, but 1.6 million higher than the year before.